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 Entrepreneurual Revolution, a survey started by my father Norman Macrae in The Economiost at the same time as Girdon Moore published Moore's Law hypotheised that if silicon chip power did double every 18 momths until around 2020 their were more compuetre brains than human ones  (ie every silicon chip had the raw process AI of a human brain) G5 makes universal connectivity for all (not just self driving cars but nothing costs too much to download or app between any mobile beings) then we shpould expect be investing education and places so that every community thrives-

that is likely to mean obver a billion jobs renewing communities (because over 90% unequal in 1960s);  a bilion jobs transforaming to renewable;resources in line with natire's climate/extocntion code, billion jobs mainly supporting replication of 30000 microfranchies - bottom up health, food, safety security as we as racing on earth to co-create any positive idea given tech trillion tkiems more powerful than that which man raced to moon with in 1960s

  

Exponentials multiply- for better of for worse- so we can expect to all win or all lose sustainability goal world trade mapping-this makes 

2020s the most exciting time to be alive- will grandparents and parent invest in youth as rising curency out of every place and win-win trades

as sharing life criotiovcal knowhow webs multgi;pies value in use u nl.kike the age of colonisation and consuming up things 

 

extract from 2024/2025 report written 1984The 20th C Economist's end poverty deputy editor Norman Macrae's alternative "little sister"/ womens empowermetn" future alternative to macroeconomists', big-low-trust-tech: orwells big brother - full book download here

 

Changing education

There has been a sea-change in the traditional ages on man. Compared with 1974 our children in 2024 generally go out to paid work (especially computer programming work) much earlier, maybe starting at nine, maybe at twelve, and we do not exploit them. But young adults of twenty-three to forty-five stay at home to play much more than in 1974; it is quite usual today for one parent (probably now generally the father, although sometimes the mother) to stay at home during the period when young children are growing up. And today adults of forty-three to ninety-three go back to school - via computerised learning - much more than they did in 1974.

In most of the rich countries in 2024 children are not allowed to leave school until they pass their Preliminary Exam. About 5 per cent of American children passed their exam last year before their eight birthday, but the median age for passing it in 2024 is ten-and-a-half, and remedial education is generally needed if a child has not passed it by the age of fifteen.

A child who passes his Prelim can decide whether to tale a job at once, and take up the remainder of his twelve years of free schooling later; or he can pass on to secondary schooling forthwith, and start to study for his Higher Diploma.

The mode of learning for the under-twelves is nowadays generally computer-generated. The child sits at home or with a group of friends or (more rarely) in an actual, traditional school building. She or he will be in touch with a computer program that has discovered , during a preliminary assessment, her or his individual learning pattern. The computer will decide what next questions to ask or task to set after each response from each child.

A school teacher assessor, who may live half a world away, will generally have been hired, via the voucher system by the family for each individual child. A good assessor will probably have vouchers to monitor the progress of twenty-five individual children, although some parents prefer to employ groups of assessors - one following the child's progress in emotional balance, one in mathematics, one in civilized living, and so on - and these groups band together in telecommuting schools.

Many communities and districts also have on-the-spot 'uncles' and 'aunts'. They monitor childrens' educational performance by browsing through the TC and also run play groups where they meet and get to know the children personally...

Some of the parents who have temporarily opted out of employment to be a family educator also put up material on the TC s for other parents to consult. Sometimes the advice is given for free, sometimes as a business. It is a business for Joshua Ginsberg. He puts a parents advice newsletter on the TC , usually monthly. Over 300 million people subscribe to it, nowadays at a 5-cent fee per person, or less. Here's an entry from the current newsletter:

"Now that TCs are universal and can access libraries of books, 3-d video, computer programs, you name it, it is clear that the tasks of both the Educator and the Communicator are far more stimulating that ten years ago.

One of my recent lessons with my ten-year-old daughter Julie was in art appreciation. In the standard art appreciation course the TC shows replicas of famous artists' pictures, and a computer asks the pupil to match the artist to the picture. Julie said to the computer that it would be fun to see Constable's Haywain as Picasso might have drawn it. The computer obliged with its interpretation , and then ten more stylised haywains appeared together with the question 'who might have drawn these?'. I believe we are the first to have prompted the TC along this road, but it may now become a standard question when the computer recognises a child with similar learning patterns to Julie's.

It is sometimes said that today's isolated sort of teaching has robbed children of the capacity to play and interact with other children. This is nonsense. We ensure that Julie and her four year old brother Pharon have lots of time to play with children in our neighbourhood . But in work we do prefer to interact with children who are of mutual advantage to Julie and to each other. The computer is an ace teacher, but so are people. You really learn things if you can teach them to someone else. Our computer has helped us to find a group of four including Julie with common interests, who each have expertise in some particular areas to teach the others.

The TC also makes it easier to play games within the family. My parents used to play draughts, halma, then chess with me. They used to try to be nice to me and let me win. This condescending kindness humiliated me, and I always worked frenetically to beat my younger brother (who therefore always lost and dissolved into tears.) Today Julie, Pharon and I play halma together against the graded computer, and Julie and I play it at chess. The computer knows Pharon's standard of play at halma and Julie's and mine at chess. Its default setting is at that level where each of us can win but only if we play at our best. Thus Pharon sometimes wins his halma game while Julie and I are simultaneously losing our chess game, and this rightly gives Pharon a feeling of achievement. When Julie and I have lost at chess, we usually ask the computer to re-rerun the game, stopping at out nmistakes and giving a commentary. As it is a friendly computer it does a marvelous job of consoling us. Last week it told Julie that the world champion actually once made the same mistake as she had done - would she like to see that game?

I intend to devote the next two letters to the subjects I have discussed here , but retailing the best of your suggestions instead of droning on with mine."

While the computer's role in children's education is mainly that of instructor (discovering a child's learning pattern and responding to it) and learning group matcher, its main role in higher education is as a store of knowledge. Although a computer can only know what Man has taught it, it has this huge advantage. No individual man lives or studies long enough to imbibe within himself all the skills and resources that are the product of the millennia of man's quest for knowledge, all the riches and details from man's inheritance of learning passed on from generation to generation. But any computer today can inherit and call up instantly any skill which exists anywhere in the form of a program.

This is why automatically updated databases are today the principal instruments of higher education and academic research. It is difficult for our generation to conceive that only forty years ago our scientists acted as tortoise-like discoverers of knowledge, confined to small and jealous cliques with random and restricted methods of communicating ideas. Down until the 1980s the world has several hundred sepaate cancer research organisations with no central co-ordinating database. 

Norman Macrae

@metoo #digitalcooperation happy womens day from GAIIB.com Girls Artificial Infrastructure Investment Bankers- help vote world record job creators learning webs 2019-2020 economistdiary.com womenuni.com worldcitizen.tv quarterbilliongirls.com

 

follow the Ma: jack has spent since 1994 searching for where big-small chnage will come to chich markets - so fast moving consumer goods chnaged by ecommerce; finance and social sharing markets eg bikes by mobile apps-clouds; furniture by OTO;  jobs education and happiness sectors by 1 refugee and bodrer crossings, 2 expereintial learning olympics and the games of education of youth as sustainability goals generation on every belt road map

Macrae: he was an elegant writer of original ideas who delighted in paradoxes

Macrae: he was an elegant writer of original ideas who delighted in paradoxes
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In a list of 20th-century British prophets without honour in their own land, the name of Norman Macrae would surely be in the top half dozen. The lack of recognition was particularly odd as Macrae was a journalist, a profession cluttered with self-promoting egos, and his subjects — economics, politics, technology and several more — were standard fare in pubs and Parliaments. There was hardly an aspect of life that was off-limits for him; through his writing he changed many minds and opened even more; most of his ideas were ahead of their time; and he was incapable of writing a dull sentence. And yet, in Britain at least, his achievements went largely unheralded.

The contrast was not lost on Macrae — his articles delighted in paradoxes of every kind — but it was easily explained. In 1949 he joined The Economist, then as now a publication without bylines, and did not leave it until he retired in 1988. Though he went on to write several books and a column in The Sunday Times, as well as becoming an enthusiastic blogger, his finest phrases and most original ideas appeared in The Economist. He was its deputy editor from 1965-88, and though he hoped to become editor he never let frustrated ambition stunt the enormous role he played in the publication’s success. When he joined the paper in 1949, its circulation was roughly 30,000, on a par with The Spectator and the New Statesman. By the time he left, its circulation had grown to more than 300,000, dwarfing the other two. It had indeed become, in Macrae’s words, the “world’s favourite viewspaper”.

Norman Macrae was born in 1923 and went to Mill Hill School in north London. In 1935 he moved with his parents to Moscow, where his father was British Consul. The memories of Stalin’s purges, and of Hitler’s pogroms during another paternal posting, fuelled Macrae’s passionate belief in freedom — just as his experience in the RAF, as a navigator in bombing raids over Germany, later turned him against the waste of war. In 1945 he went up to Corpus Christi, Cambridge, to read economics. He was not impressed (“Much of Cambridge’s intellectual atmosphere then was of subpolytechnic Marxism”), and it was only when he arrived at The Economist that all the pieces fell into place and his life really began.

Despite its anonymity, The Economist was the perfect pulpit for Macrae. It allowed him to roam, geographically as well as intellectually, and it gave him the time to explore big ideas, many of which appeared in the paper’s surveys — the only occasion when authors had a byline.

Perhaps the most remarkable was “Consider Japan” in 1962; long before Westerners realised there might be something to learn from that defeated and hidebound nation, Macrae predicted Japan would become the world’s greatest manufacturer. One reader wrote to the editor urging that, next time Macrae went travelling, he should take a hat with him so the sun wouldn’t addle his brain.

Macrae’s articles were full of such prescience. In 1973, when oil prices quadrupled, he wrote that they would collapse — which they did, just as spectacularly, two years later. When others were extolling the settled borders of the mixed economy in the 1960s and 1970s, he was predicting a global wave of privatisation. In 1983 he forecast the Berlin Wall would come down in Christmas 1989; he was out by just six weeks. He repeatedly disputed the CIA’s analysis of the size and strength of the Soviet economy, and was in due course proved right. And in 1984 he described not just the coming of the internet but also the effects it would have on how people would work and where:

“Eventually books, files, television programmes, computer information and telecommunications will merge ... There will be cheap terminals around everywhere ... [which] will be used to access databases anywhere in the world, and will become the brainworker’s mobile place of work.”

One of the abiding temptations of futurologists is to predict what they wish for, and Macrae sometimes did just that. He had a deep distrust of politicians and officialdom, so naturally favoured a small state. Hence his words, describing a book he wrote in 1984 called The 2024 Report: “The main event of 1990-2010 was that the world’s 60-year spasm of big government disappeared. We stopped letting politicians spend the absurd 45 per cent of GNP in countries like Britain ... and we all came down to more like the 10 per cent of GNP spent through government in America in 1929.”

That was one of Macrae’s blind spots. The other was most obvious in the 1970s, when he urged the Heath Government on to bigger and bigger fiscal deficits in pursuit of faster growth and lower unemployment. It was one of the few occasions where his thinking was behind events. It took him some years to shed such crude Keynesianism and come to accept that his supply-side crusades were the surer path to faster growth.

Macrae was the most generous of colleagues, a much loved figure who in private struggled to string words into a half coherent sentence — until he picked up his pen. He was also an effective public speaker who for years delighted American audiences with his unique mix of eccentricity and brilliance. He was honoured by the Japanese with the Order of the Rising Sun in 1988. Perhaps that finally stirred the men in Whitehall, as he was appointed CBE later that year.

Macrae had a long and happy marriage to Janet Kemp, who died in 1994. They had a son and a daughter, who died in 1989 when she was 34. It needed a man of great resilience to take such blows, but nobody who knew Macrae could ever doubt that his was indeed a big heart............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Norman Macrae, CBE, journalist, was born on September 10, 1923. He died on June 11, 2010, aged 86

 

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    Jun 11, 2010
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Bio/Description

A British economist, journalist and author, considered by some to have been one of the world's best forecasters when it came to economics and society. These forecasts mapped back to system designs mediated so that readers and entrepreneurial networks could exponentially calibrate shared alternative scenarios. He joined The Economist in 1949 and retired as its deputy chief editor in 1988. He foresaw the Pacific century, the reversal of nationalization of enterprises, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the spread of the internet, which were all published in the newspaper during his time there. Not to get bored, his first ten years in retirement produced the biography of Johnny Von Neumann (the mathematical father of computers and networks), a column for the UK Sunday Times, and a 'Heresy Column' for Fortune. He was the father of mathematician, marketing commentator, and author Chris Macrae. Their joint future history on death of distance in 1984 forecast that 2005-2015 would be humanity's most critical decade irreversibly impacting sustainability. In 1984, he wrote "The 2024 Report: a future history of the next 40 years". It was the first book to: provide readers with a brainstorming journey of what people in an internetworking world might do, and predict that a new economy would emerge with revolutionary new productivity and social benefits enjoyed by all who interacted in a net-connected world. In this book, he wrote: "Eventually books, files, television programmes, computer information and telecommunications will merge. We'll have this portable object which is a television screen with first a typewriter, later a voice activator attached. Afterwards it will be miniaturised so that your personal access instrument can be carried in your buttonhole, but there will be these cheap terminals around everywhere, more widely than telephones of 1984." 
Y  chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk :: rowp.tv  :: linkedin UNwomens :: WASHINTGON DC TEXT HOTLIENE (USA=1) 240 316 8157
chapter 20chapter 1

chapter 2

chapter 3 part 1  chapter 3 part 2

chapter 4

chapter 5

chapter 6

chapter 7

chapter 8

chapter 9

chapter 10

chapter 11 part 1  chapter 11 part 2

chapter 12

chapter 13

chapter 14

chapter 15

chapter 16

chapter 17

chapter 18

chapter 19

 

chapter 21

 

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tv affiliates: up200.tv - nominate 200 trusted collaboration entrepreneurs; futurestocks.tv -SBE stockmarket is possible?; Passports.jp; Satyagraha

 

Please note: our editors chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk loves to hear of nominations for other individuals who merit being in the same hall of change fame and potential WCBN support as those above

Other curiosities: : google ad

 

There are 4 future history endings to the 21st C. As my daughter is 9 year old: I find the first three of these compound futures utterly unacceptable and invite you to mail me at info@worldcitizen.tv if you do too:

Dinosaur: means the whole human species will be as dead as the dodo. Tell us who's "death of birth" story interests you most. I'm a fan of Chairman Ray Anderson, and this video. In it, he explains not only how all corporations -as key systems in  productive and demanding networks of human relationships - can help humanity prevent the "dinosaur ending" but also how those corporations who value human life will compound the most profits too. It's a myth that sustainability business investments don't do well by doing good. But what is required is consistent investment through time as all entreprenurial and economic systems are intended be, not exercises in how much can you reap or rape from the world every last quarter. All the true economists have mapped how healthy societies beget strong economies, NOT  vice versa.

Shark: means that there will be a world of less than a billion people, most enslaved to the greediest and nastiest men. It is not for nothing that the Spectre villains in James Bond films kept pet sharks. Sharks sense how to make a human or financial killing at many miles - they literally are the best at smelling blood as well as having  blood-thirsty greeds. I am by no means claiming that most large organisational boardrooms are populated by sharks. But as a mathematician and investigator of Unseen Wealth research I am weary of hearing over 20 years of protests that we are ignorant of the system law : if  leadership only optimises how much money speculators take out from the last quarter's spreadsheet,  the organisation's  purpose will be full of holes than a pantomime dame's leaking bucket. Worse over time what you exclude from governing a system is what you compound the destruction of. That's why any boardroom who does not want to see its business case transparently audited for sustainability henceforth swims with the sharks or is blinded by butterflies.

Butterflies tell the wrong stories about system or network models of how to map the whole before getting boxed into parts. Butterflies making system patterns sound complex or chaotic beyond human wit. Inconveniently, this gives the manager the perfect excuse to say that sytsem transformation cannot be succesful.  Their end consequence is also likely to end with less than a million beings living, but this time survivors wll all be back in the cave age.  As the world gets more interconnected, what we need to map is exactly how do get interconnected in each other's most vital compound risks or joys. We do need to prevent the next HIV from spreading virally beyond early cases especially if it is transmitted by contagious birds. Grassroots in frastructures needed little more than a primitive mobile telephone network around Tsunami coastlines to prevent deaths of thos who were 5 hours away from the wave even if those nearest the wave's origin could not have ben alerted. We need to reduce online degrees of separation to zero when the information to be passed through us humans is life critical in its flows. Conversely, there are many types of active learning that multiply value in use instead of gettin g consumed up the way in dustrial things always were. The two great untruths told by the butterfly brigade:

1) that there is one primary way of thinking or doing systems- by definition systemic approaches interface and integrate around molecular subsystems; one simple consequence of this organsiationally is a lot more interdisciplinary flows are needed for the  service economy  organsiational system to wholly empower trust and other entrepreneurial energies

2) that my life -or yours - will be impacted on the other side of the world by a butterfly flapping its wing. This ludicrous insult to logic should not however lead anyone to believe that we can lose all the world's rainforests and expect climate equilibrium to be sustained.

Lion-Child - and I would delight in hearing of other identifications, since this is the truly important story of the four and merits every type of cross-cultural rendering you all can imagine - is about the collaboration characters we will need to flourish if 6+ billion humans are to thrive. Quite a simple thing to achieve if we are as truly curious as a child, as courageous as a lioness in protecting her young, and cherish the pride in community wellbeing as much as lions do.


 

Ideas for 24 Goals for the 24 Days PowWow on will humanity invest in Sustainability in Time

I gather that some goals gave already been decided. Numbers do not denote order:
 
Activity Goals
G1 Plant 24 intercity hubs around the world using Islington hub and espian plex tools as  strawman infrastructure for local adaptation
 
G2 Demand that London's Mayor etc open up sufficient spaces in public building for 90 day summer debate of sustainability issues
 
G3 Develop a map of all hubs and learning houses - ie to include the 24 homegrown ones, and others out there eg Brazil has at least two www.catcomm.org
London has the house www.learninghouse.biz  
 
G4 Get the 24 hubs to start editing their own crisis learning travel guide that Sofia is producing 2007 version of which incidentally will include a start up map of hubs; other contents in this include Harrison Owen Open Space for children; Gandhi family debriefings from the world's largest school and 1 million oneworld alumni; challenges of starting up CIDA's free university
 
G5 How can we go beyond the learning guide to a meeting  format trialled by London and for replication in any city Learning500 (see mail of sat feb 3 addendum Sunita Gandhi)
 
G6 invite 24 days participants to nominate 15 entries of book of the 200 most trusted collaboration entrepreneurs of 2008 , with particular foci on the 7 sustainability crises which become irreversible if they're not turning round by 2012 see pic attached
 
G7 The top 4 outcome crises in the picture are a direct match with Larry Brilliant’s 4 main goals for progressing the work of google.org - how do we establish b ridges with that - he states these goals at this video minute 14 http://webcast.ucsd.edu:8080/ramgen/UCSD_TV/11645.rm
 
G8 How do we mobilise all new economists and sustainability investors around the empowerment development economics revolution Sir Nick Stern is leading which from May will be out of the London School of Economics- what London student networks already exist to interact positively with Sir Nick; how can we unite oxbridge and Indian alumni too (since eg Sir Nick's curricula is parallel to that Manmohan Singh has been pioneering since his Cambridge days in the 1950s and blends with the Entrepreneurial Revolution trilogy of my father). How do we ensure that the debate on how to spend 1% of economies to save 20% does not get greenwashed by all the old vested interests; the worst scenario being that the 1% is wholly wasted while an image of saving the climate lulls us into false security
 
G9 How could we outline the definitive entrepreneurial, peace network (open systems , biomass) curricula that all new age universities and serve the world alumni need (eg blend this with the Sir Richard Branson entrepreneur school at Cida, the India alumni of city Montessori etc)    
 
G10 How do we popularise the 4 end states of sustainability - eg Dinosaur (death of birth), Shark (1 million enslaved by a few James Bond Spectre Villains), Butterfly probably 1 million cavemen through  telling system stories the wrong way (I'll never be impacted by a butterfly's wing but could from nuclear wave or terror wave or birdflu or Greenland unhinging) , LionChild (or whatever is your identity) of 6+ billion people collaborating around a higher order system of sustainability which fairly integrates every locality into globalisation. How do we own the vocabulary so that these 4 identities become part of worldwide chat.
 
G11 How do we identify journalist for humanity who care about at least one of the 7 above crises as reaching irreversibility by 2012 if we don’t fix them now
 
G12 How do we start developing supporters clubs around collaboration entrepreneurs connecting eg all the best ideas that Yunus is using - thegreenchildren.org - a British pop-spokesgroup for Grameen; the microcreditsummit as one of the top 10 world citizen meeting formats; the extension of microcredit as the perfect concept to clean up the banking market into other concepts designed to partner trillion dollar global markets until they stop externalising destruction of each market's deepest human purpose (see trillion dollar audit game - left an early copy with you, otherwise it will emerge at http://worldcitizen.tv and is backed up by the earlier book Alan was writing with me)